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Konjunkturprognose (vierteljährlich)
  • 04. 10. 2019
  • 19. 12. 2019

WIFO-Macromod. An Econometric Model of the Austrian Economy

Opens external link in new windowWIFO Working Papers, 241/2004

WIFO-Macromod is the annual aggregate macroeconometric model of the Austrian economy developed at the Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO). The model serves a dual purpose: preparing the annual WIFO medium-term economic forecast with a forecast horizon of five years and performing economic policy simulations.
This paper is organised as follows. In section 2, we briefly outline the scope of the model. Then we present its main structural equations and definitions (section 3), and discuss three simulations: public consumption shock, export shock and interest rate shock in section 4. The simulated economic shocks, although conceivable and realistic, do not relate to actual or potential developments but highlight the properties of the model. In Warmedinger (2004) and Zwiener (2004) WIFO-Macromod is compared with models for the Austrian economy run by the Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Fenz and Spitzer, 2004) and the Institute for Advanced Studies (Hofer and Kunst, 2004).

A Long-run Macroeconomic Model of the Austrian Economy (A-LMM). Model Documentation and Simulations

Opens external link in new windowWIFO Working Papers, 224/2004

In this paper we develop a long run macroeconomic model for Austria to simulate the effects of aging on employment, output growth, and the solvency of the social security system. By disaggregating the population into six age cohorts and modelling sex specific participation rates for each cohort, we are able to account for the future demographic trends. Apart from a baseline scenario, we perform six alternative simulations that highlight the effects of aging from different perspectives. These include two population projections with high life expectancy and with low fertility, a dynamic activity rate scenario, two scenarios with a stable fiscal balance of social security and an alternative pension indexation, and a scenario with higher productivity growth.

The Short and Long-run Interdependencies Between the Eurozone and the USA, in: Cycles and Growth

Opens external link in new windowEmpirica, 2/2009 

We estimate quarterly cointegrating vector autoregressive models for the Eurozone and the USA based on long-run restrictions derived from a dynamic open economy model. Three long-run relations between the Eurozone and the USA emerge: relative purchasing power parity, international interest parity and a stationary output gap between the two economies. Generalised impulse response functions show differences in the dynamic adjustment of the two economies. Due to the I(1)-characteristic of both output series and the stability conditions imposed by the long-run equilibrium relationships, shocks to the model produce level effects only, while growth rates converge to their long-run averages.